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Adversarial Risk Analysis: A Smallpox Example

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Classical risk analysis has focused on situations whose outcomes are determined entirely by probability. Classical game theory has focused on situations in which the only uncertainty is the action of an intelligent opponent. This talk combines both methodologies and applies them in the context of preparation for a hypothetical bioterrorist attack using smallpox. The talk draws upon experience in the federal government and an upcoming National Academies advisory report to the Department of Homeland Security, and points up the advantages of the Kadane-Larkey Bayesian formulation of game theory, particularly in the context of portfolio analysis.

This talk is part of the Statistics series.

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