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Monday 11 March 2019, 17:00-18:30
Economic uncertainty over the long run: a natural language processing approach.
- đ¤ Speaker: Dr Walter Jansson, Bank of England
- đ Date & Time: Monday 11 March 2019, 17:00 - 18:30
- đ Venue: Darwin College (Seminar Room, No. 1 Newnham Terrace - entrance via Porters Lodge on Silver St)
Abstract
The recent financial crisis, changes in the stance of US trade policy and the events surrounding Brexit negotiations have brought the impact of economic uncertainty to the forefront of macroeconomic research. This project applies natural language processing (NLP) methods to over 150 years of text from major UK newspapers to quantify changes in the degree of economic uncertainty over time. The resulting indicator is used to examine econometrically the impact of uncertainty on economic and financial conditions in the UK over the long run. The results show that heightened economic uncertainty increases financial constraints while reducing investment and GDP .
Series This talk is part of the Financial History Seminar series.
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