Abstract

Phase alignment (synchronization) is a generalized property of interacting oscillators. If such interactions apply to earthquakes, they should manifest as time‐dependent variations in earthquake productivity organized according to a characteristic elastic loading period. Defining this period as renewal interval, the time required to accumulate the elastic potential energy released in a rupture, gives a consistent scaling property that can be used to search for temporal organization. We test for the expected structure in earthquake productivity using different statistical tools optimized for different sensitivities. These tests show structure in the arrangement of earthquakes in time that could be used to improve forecasting skill and advance our understanding of global earthquake interactions.

Background reading:

Bendick, R. and Mencin, D. (2020), Evidence for Synchronization in the Global Earthquake Catalog. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47: e2020GL087129. doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087129

Bendick, R., and Bilham, R. (2017), Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8320– 8327, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074934

This seminar will be held online. Zoom details will be sent to members of the Earth Sciences department via email. Please contact the organisers if you are outside the department and would like to attend