Towards the Probabilistic Earth-System Model.
- đ¤ Speaker: Tim Palmer (ECMWF)
- đ Date & Time: Thursday 26 February 2009, 14:00 - 15:00
- đ Venue: British Antarctic Survey, conference room
Abstract
The case is made for a partially stochastic reformulation of the governing equations in future-generation climate prediction models.
Firstly, a guiding characteristic of the scientific method is an ability to characterise and predict uncertainty; individual climate models are not currently able to do this. Secondly, through the effects of noise-induced rectification, stochastic-dynamic parametrisation may provide a (poor man’s) surrogate to high resolution in reducing model bias. Thirdly, stochastic-dynamic parametrisations may be able to take advantage of the inherent stochasticity of electron flow through certain types of low-energy computer chips, currently under development.
These arguments have particular resonance for next-generation Earth-System models, which purport to be comprehensive numerical representations of climate, and where integrations at high resolution may be unaffordable.
Series This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.
Included in Lists
- All Talks (aka the CURE list)
- Biology
- British Antarctic Survey
- British Antarctic Survey, conference room
- Cambridge Environment
- Climate Science Seminars within Cambridge
- Featured lists
- Life Sciences
- Life Sciences
- ME Seminar
- my_list
- ob366-ai4er
- other talks
- Queens' College Politics Society
- School of Physical Sciences
- Talks related to atmosphere and ocean dynamics and climate science
Note: Ex-directory lists are not shown.
![[Talks.cam]](/static/images/talkslogosmall.gif)

Tim Palmer (ECMWF)
Thursday 26 February 2009, 14:00-15:00