Abstract

We are delighted to be organising our 19th Armitage Workshop & Lecture on the theme of ‘Meeting the challenges of COVID -19 through statistics’.

Our Armitage Lecturer will be Professor Nicholas Jewell from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, speaking on:

“Biostatistics in Infectious Disease Research: Test-negative designs from Influenza, Dengue and Ebola, to COVID -19”

Abstract: Test-negative designs are a relatively recent addition to observational study toolboxes, originally employed for assessment of seasonal influenza vaccination programs. I will review the rationale and development of the original test-negative design and discuss extensions to cover randomized exposures, various kinds of clustering and mixed testing programs, with illustrations from both dengue fever and Ebola virus disease. Recent interest has focused on uses of the test-negative design to estimate and compare effectiveness of COVID -19 vaccines. The presentation will highlight statistical issues associated with the design, analysis, and interpretation of resulting data, with suggestions for further research. The lecture will touch on statistical issues associated with causal inference, cluster randomised trials, retrospective studies, spatial statistics, and randomisation inference.

The keynote lecture is the highlight of a full day workshop, with talks from Daniela De Angelis, Thomas Jaki, Shaun Seaman and Hélène Ruffieux, who have been at the fore of the response to COVID -19.