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Modulation of future sea ice loss by ocean heat transport

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SIPW05 - SIP Follow on: Mathematics of sea ice in the twenty-first century

Climate model simulations exhibit large spread in future Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area, harming confidence in projections of the 21st century. Sea ice loss is strongly correlated with the change in global, poleward ocean heat transport (OHT). We show that the multi-model relationship between these quantities can be reduced to a single linear equation derived from a toy model of the polar climate system. This reveals the emergent sensitivity of sea ice to OHT as a constraint on large-scale energy conservation and implies a major role of the ocean in driving sea ice uncertainties.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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