Abstract

The Ross Sea and the Ross Ice Shelf are currently in a relatively stable state, despite increasing global anthropogenic pressures, with waters below the Ross Ice Shelf remaining in a cold state and low basal melting in comparison to ice shelves nearby. The Ross Sea is an important region for sea ice production, as well as water mass transformation and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Changes to air temperature, winds, and freshwater fluxes (such as precipitation changes and increased upstream basal melt) have the potential to tip the Ross Ice Shelf cavity from its current cold state to a warm state. This cold to warm transition and associated regional freshening, due to increased basal melting and a reduction in sea ice formation, could have a significant influence on deep water formation, and far-reaching impacts, such as changes to thermohaline circulation and potential sea level rise. This work uses a regional 1/4° resolution ocean model (NEMO) for the Ross Sea and the surrounding seas, which includes the thermodynamic interaction between ocean and ice shelf. Through atmospheric perturbations, such as changes to winds and air temperature, reflective of potential future climate conditions, we explore the impacts that these conditions have on ice shelf circulation in the model and what this may mean for the future of the Ross Sea.