Abstract

This seminar will present methodologies that support risk-conscious decision-making at building design, retrofit, and operation stages. The presentation will start with a brief review of methods in current practice and then introduce new stochastic approaches that account for uncertainties in building design and operation. Case study examples are given to show the strengths of new methods and their contributions on the practice, including discrete evaluation simulation to capture occupancy variability at design stage, Bayesian approach to calibrate energy models at retrofit stage and Gaussian process modeling to measure and verify energy savings at operation stage. They will also demonstrate the importance of uncertainty information on decisions in specific application contexts. Under the theme of uncertainty analysis, the seminar will introduce future research ideas for enhancing the current modes of building design and operation.