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Pinpointing sources of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States using a gravity model

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Stephen Kissler .

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States featured striking, and surprising, transmission patterns. The main epidemic wave emanated not from a major city, but from the less populous south-eastern part of the country, and moved slowly northward, resulting in a much longer outbreak than normal. To describe these dynamics, we have developed a disease transmission model based on the gravity model for human mobility. We identify key drivers of the epidemic, locate likely sources, and map the regions in which infection can be traced with high probability back to one, two, or three or more of these sources.

This talk is part of the Worms and Bugs series.

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