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SUMMARY:Emulators for forecasting and UQ of natural hazards - Elaine Spill
 er (None / Other)
DTSTART:20180207T100000Z
DTEND:20180207T110000Z
UID:TALK100120@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Geophysical hazards &ndash\; landslides\, tsunamis\, volcanic 
 avalanches\, etc. &ndash\; which lead to catastrophic inundation are rare 
 yet devastating events for surrounding communities. The rarity of these ev
 ents poses two significant challenges. First\, there are limited data to i
 nform aleatoric scenario models\, how frequent\, how big\, where. Second\,
  such hazards often follow heavy-tailed distributions resulting in a signi
 ficant probability that a larger-than-recorded catastrophe might occur. To
  overcome this second challenge\, we must rely on physical models of these
  hazards to &ldquo\;probe&rdquo\; the tail for these catastrophic events. 
 We will present an emulator-based strategy that allows great speed-up in M
 onte Carlo simulations  for creating probabilistic hazard forecast maps. T
 his approach offers the flexibility to explore both the  impacts of episte
 mic uncertainties on hazard forecasts and of non-stationary scenario model
 ing on short  term forecasts.  Collaborators: Jim Berger (Duke)\, Eliza Ca
 lder (Edinburgh)\, Abani Patra (Buffalo)\, Bruce Pitman (Buffalo)\,  Regis
  Rutarindwa (Marquette)\, Robert Wolpert (Duke)
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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