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SUMMARY:Mathematical modelling at different stages of an infectious diseas
 e outbreak - Robin Thompson\, Christ Church\, University of Oxford
DTSTART:20190201T160000Z
DTEND:20190201T170000Z
UID:TALK107686@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:Infectious disease outbreaks can be responsible for devastatin
 g consequences. For example\, the 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in west Africa le
 d to more than 11\,000 deaths\, putting it at the centre of the news agend
 a. During this talk\, using Ebola as a case study\, I will discuss how sto
 chastic epidemiological models can be used at different stages of an infec
 tious disease outbreak.  At the beginning of an outbreak\, key questions i
 nclude: how can surveillance be performed effectively\, and will the outbr
 eak develop into a major epidemic? When a major epidemic is ongoing\, deci
 sion makers often attempt to forecast the final epidemic size and plan con
 trol interventions to reduce the impact of the epidemic. And at the appare
 nt end of an epidemic\, an important question is whether the epidemic is r
 eally over once there are no new symptomatic cases. Mathematical modelling
  can be used to address these questions\, and is therefore a useful tool f
 or decision makers throughout an outbreak.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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