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SUMMARY:Modelling avian influenza outbreak risk in the Australian chicken 
 industry - Prof. Katie Glass\, Australian National University
DTSTART:20180716T110000Z
DTEND:20180716T120000Z
UID:TALK107743@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:The outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in U
 S poultry in 2014-15 were described by the US Department of Agriculture as
  the “worst animal disease outbreak in US history”\, affecting over 48
  million birds. In Australia\, the market share for free-range eggs increa
 sed from 10% in 2000 to 50% in 2017\, raising concerns about the impact of
  this change in farming methods on the risk of HPAI outbreaks. We use math
 ematical models as part of a collaborative project to assess the current r
 isk of avian influenza outbreaks in the commercial Australian chicken indu
 stry\, the potential impact of increasing free-range production\, and the 
 potential for intervention strategies to reduce this risk.  Given high lev
 els of biosecurity on current Australian free-range farms\, increases in f
 ree-range farming practices are likely to result in a modest increase in H
 PAI outbreak risk. Current practices around water treatment are highly eff
 ective but there is scope to improve biosecurity around wild-bird access t
 o sheds and feed storage areas.  The short production cycle in chicken mea
 t sheds limits the potential for HPAI outbreaks to occur in meat sheds\, a
 s depopulation and cleaning prevents long-term disease persistence. The co
 mbination of simulation and analytic methods enables a range of different 
 scenarios to be considered\, with findings helping to guide biosecurity po
 licies.
LOCATION:Meeting room 4\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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