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SUMMARY:Will climate-volcano interactions be modulated by ongoing climate 
 change? Perspective from explosive eruption column rise. - Thomas J. Aubry
 \, University of British Columbia
DTSTART:20181205T120000Z
DTEND:20181205T130000Z
UID:TALK112567@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Brendan McCormick Kilbride
DESCRIPTION:Volcanic eruption plumes reaching the stratosphere result in t
 he formation of long-lived (1-2 years) sulfate aerosols\, which interact w
 ith Sun and Earth radiation and alter the radiative balance of our planet.
  In particular\, stratospheric volcanic aerosol forcing results in a net c
 ooling of Earth’s surface. As CO2 concentration increases due to anthrop
 ogenic emissions\, changing weather and climate may affect multiple proces
 ses that govern the climatic impact of volcanic eruptions. Will we experie
 nce increased or decreased volcanic cooling on a warming Earth? This will 
 be the central question of the seminar. I will focus in particular on how 
 the rise of volcanic plumes and the injection of sulfur gases into the str
 atosphere may be affected by ongoing climate change. \n\nFirst\, I will di
 scuss the ability of simple (0D\, 1D) volcanic plume models to predict vol
 canic plume heights. Such models commonly require empirical constraints fo
 r processes such as the turbulent entrainment of atmosphere into a volcani
 c column\, and are subject to large uncertainties. I will show how recent 
 laboratory experiments and a newly compiled database of eruption source pa
 rameters improve constraints and evaluation of volcanic plume models. I wi
 ll explore the implications of this new work for the prediction of volcani
 c plume heights and the production of pyroclastic flows\, and discuss futu
 re steps for producing datasets that will enable a better evaluation of vo
 lcanic plume models.\n\nSecond\, I will use the same volcanic plume models
  along with climate projections\, a volcanic aerosol forcing model\, and p
 ast records of volcanic sulfur emission to investigate the potential effec
 ts of climate change on volcanic plume rise. I will show that reduced volc
 anic sulfur injections into the stratosphere are projected with ongoing cl
 imate change. A novel feedback hypothesis emerging from this work is that 
 volcanic cooling may be reduced on a warming Earth. I will discuss future 
 plans to investigate this feedback in the UK Earth System Model along with
  feedbacks that could affect different processes governing the climatic im
 pacts of future eruptions.\n
LOCATION: Harker 2\, Department of Earth Sciences\, Downing Street
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