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SUMMARY:Tennis Forecasting 101: Models\, monotonicity\, and the maths of m
 atch-fixing - Dr Tim Paulden\, ATASS Sports
DTSTART:20181120T160000Z
DTEND:20181120T170000Z
UID:TALK113437@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:CCA
DESCRIPTION:In this talk\, Dr Tim Paulden (ATASS Sports) will introduce th
 e classic tennis modelling challenge of converting world rankings into win
  probabilities\, and demonstrate that a relatively new technique called SC
 AM (shape-constrained additive modelling) can "automatically" generate com
 petitive predictions that respect the problem's monotonicity constraints. 
 Several higher-level modelling concepts will also be discussed\, including
  the perils of overfitting. Finally\, Dr Paulden will summarise ATASS Spor
 ts' recent work on detecting match fixing in tennis\, which featured in th
 e Royal Statistical Society's "Significance" magazine in 2016\, and has si
 nce evolved into a successful PhD research project.\n\nThe talk will begin
  from first principles - no previous knowledge of modelling is assumed!
LOCATION:MR15
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