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SUMMARY:Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms - Camille Sz
 maragd\, Institute for Animal Health
DTSTART:20080515T145000Z
DTEND:20080515T160000Z
UID:TALK11901@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Ken Eames
DESCRIPTION:Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8) unexpectedly arrived in Nor
 thern Europe in the summer of 2006. Just over 2000 holdings were affected 
 in the first year\, with Belgium\, the Netherlands and Germany worst affec
 ted\, but with cases also reported in Northern France and Luxembourg. In t
 he first year the extent of the spread seemed limited to three main spatio
 -temporal foci\, Maastricht\, Gent and Koln. In 2007\, the epidemic explod
 ed\, and the virus spread widely across Northern Europe reaching the coast
  of Great Britain (GB) in September. The spread of BTV8 has been limited i
 n GB so far (with 127 infected premises reported in early April)\, but\, a
 s happened on the continent\, the virus is likely to overwinter and a majo
 r outbreak is possible for 2008. We have developed two models to predict B
 TV transmission in GB. The first is a stochastic model which simulates the
  dynamics of BTV within a farm (Gubbins et al. 2008). This model is then c
 oupled with a between-farm transmission model. The between-farm transmissi
 on model is stochastic and spatially explicit\, based on single point loca
 tions of the farms\, and was parameterised on the 2006 outbreak data from 
 Northern Europe. The resulting model\, which incorporates within-farm dyna
 mics (Gubbins et al. 2008) and between-farms dynamics\, is being used to p
 redict the future spatio-temporal spread of BTV across Great Britain and t
 o investigate the effects of vaccination strategies to control spread.\n\n
 \nGubbins\, S.\, S. Carpenter\, et al. (2008). "Assessing the risk of blue
 tongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperat
 ure-dependent model for the basic reproduction number." J R Soc Interface 
 5(20): 363-71.\n
LOCATION:Meeting room 5\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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