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SUMMARY:Exploring How Eruption Source Parameters Affect Volcanic Radiative
  Forcing - Lauren Marshall\, University of Cambridge\, Department of Chemi
 stry
DTSTART:20190212T140000Z
DTEND:20190212T150000Z
UID:TALK119986@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino
DESCRIPTION:The climatic effects of volcanic eruptions depend on how much 
 sulfur dioxide\nis emitted\, the latitude of the eruption and the height o
 f injection. The\neffect of each one of these parameters on climate is rea
 sonably well known\,\nbut no study has quantified the effect of all possib
 le combinations of these\nparameters. We use statistical emulation to buil
 d 'response surfaces' that\ndescribe the effects of all possible eruptions
  within defined ranges\, based\non only 30 climate model simulations. The 
 results allow\, for the first time\,\nto visualize the combined effects of
  the parameters\, gaining new insight\ninto how stratospheric aerosol beha
 ves and how it affects climate. Most\nimportantly\, we show that many plau
 sible combinations of the eruption source\nparameters can produce the same
  volcanic response. We explore the possible\neruptions that could lead to 
 polar ice sheet deposition that is consistent\nwith ice-core-derived value
 s for eruptions in the last 2500 years. We find a\nwide range in eruption-
 realizations\, which have an associated range in\nradiative forcing\, with
  subsequent implications for historical volcanic\nforcing reconstructions.
 \n
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Seminar Room 2
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