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SUMMARY:Accounting for uncertainty when using computer models as decision-
support tools in energy system planning - Amy Wilson (University of Edinbu
rgh)
DTSTART:20190322T134500Z
DTEND:20190322T143000Z
UID:TALK121471@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Computer
models are widely used as decision-support tools
for planning energy systems
in both industry and government. These c
omputer models are often
computationally intensive and have high-dime
nsional input spaces\, making it
difficult to quantify the impact tha
t different sources of uncertainty have
on model output. Without a co
mplete picture of the effect of these
uncertainties it is difficult t
o take planning decisions that are robust in
the real-world. This pre
sentation will discuss methodology for accounting for
uncertainties i
n computationally intensive energy planning models. Both input
uncert
ainty and uncertainty in the structure of the model itself will be
co
nsidered. An emulator\, or statistical model of the underlying computer
model\, will be used to quantify uncertainty in areas of the input spac
e where
it has not been possible to make model runs. This emulator wi
ll be combined
with a description of the uncertainty over the input s
pace and a description
of the structural error to quantify uncertaint
y in model outputs. Several
real-world examples in energy planning wi
ll be discussed\, including the
modelling of wholesale electricity pr
ices and making decisions about
renewable support schemes.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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