BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:The impact of uncertainty on trade agreements between the UK and E
 U - Oliver Exton\, Department of Economics
DTSTART:20200203T191500Z
DTEND:20200203T213000Z
UID:TALK122521@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Peter Watson
DESCRIPTION:The renegotiation of a trade agreement introduces uncertainty 
 into the economic environment. In June 2016 the British electorate unexpec
 tedly voted to leave the European Union\, introducing a new era in which t
 he UK and EU began to renegotiate the terms of the UK-EU trading relations
 hip. We exploit this natural experiment to estimate the impact of uncertai
 nty associated with trade agreement renegotiation on the export participat
 ion decision of firms in the UK. Empirically\, we develop measures of the 
 trade policy uncertainty facing firms exporting from the UK to the EU afte
 r June 2016. We conclude that there would have been a 5% increase in expor
 ting new products to the EU in 2016 and a 6.1% decrease in terminated expo
 rts from the UK to the EU if there had been no increased trade policy unce
 rtainty after June 2016. 
LOCATION:Dept of Applied Mathematics &amp\; Theoretical Physics\, Centre f
 or Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Cambridge\, CB3 0WB.
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR