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SUMMARY:The risk of an abrupt climate change: probabilities from a determi
 nistic model using emulators - Peter Challenor (National Oceanography Cent
 re\, Southampton)
DTSTART:20080806T093000Z
DTEND:20080806T103000Z
UID:TALK13074@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Deb Shoosmith
DESCRIPTION:There is a possibility that the climate could undergo rapid an
 d dramatic changes over the next century or so. It is believed that these 
 abrupt changes have a low probability\, but there is little evidence for w
 hat this probability could be.  In this talk I discuss methods we could us
 e for estimating these probabilities from deterministic climate models. Th
 ese methods are based on the idea of an emulator. An emulator is a statist
 ical approximation to the full deterministic climate model. The full clima
 te model is expensive to run\, so we are limited in the number of runs we 
 can achieve. This means we cannot use Monte Carlo methods\, for example. W
 e run the climate model at a designed set of places and use these runs to 
 build an emulator. This emulator can now be used instead of the full model
  since it takes an insignificant amount of computer time. Using the exampl
 e of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic we
  illustrate these methods and show how they can be used to estimate the ri
 sk of low probability events.
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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