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SUMMARY:Beyond mean climate change: Using paleoclimate archives to better 
 constrain climate variability.  - Thomas Laepple\, Alfred Wegener Institut
 e
DTSTART:20191121T173000Z
DTEND:20191121T193000Z
UID:TALK133060@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:David Hodell
DESCRIPTION:In order to adapt to the changing climate\, not only changes i
 n the mean state but also the magnitude and change of climate variability 
 have to be known. \nWhereas synoptic to interannual variations in the clim
 ate system are well documented and current climate models are generally ab
 le to simulate them realistically\, much less is known about the amplitude
  and the mechanisms of climate variability on longer time-scales.  Estimat
 ing that variability is the basis for the detection and attribution of the
  anthropogenic component\, determines the range of plausible future climat
 e changes and also provides information about the time-scales of the earth
  system components.\n\nPaleoclimate archives such as ice-core and marine s
 ediment records can provide the needed information about climate variabili
 ty but are sparse\, inherently noisy and and at times provide contradictor
 y evidence. This hampered quantitative reconstructions of climate variabil
 ity and systematic testing of the variability simulated from climate model
 s.\n\nIn the last years\, several advances have been made to better extrac
 t climate variability estimates from climate archives. \nThese include a b
 etter characterisation of the non-climate effects and the proxy response b
 ased on replicate\, multi-proxy and core-top compilations\, \nproxy system
  models bridging the gap between climate and proxy variations as well as n
 ovel statistical techniques tailored to separate climate from noise compon
 ents.\nBased on these advances we were able to considerably improve our un
 derstanding of the present climate variability as well as to estimate how 
 climate variability responds to a changing climate.\nI will discuss recent
  advances in the toolbox of teasing out climate variability from marine an
 d ice-core based proxy records and also point out future directions how to
  enhance the use of the paleoclimate record for  quantitatively constraini
 ng present and future climate variability.
LOCATION:Clare College (Latimer Room)
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