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SUMMARY:LONG TERM MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A CROSS COUNTRY
  ANALYSIS - Kamiar Mohaddes\, University Senior Lecturer in Economics &amp
 \; Policy\, Fellow of Girton College
DTSTART:20191127T120000Z
DTEND:20191127T133000Z
UID:TALK133678@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Emily Brown
DESCRIPTION:We study the long term impact of climate change on economic ac
 tivity across countries\, using a stochastic growth model where labour pro
 ductivity is affected by country specific climate variables. defined as de
 viations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Usi
 ng a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014\, we find
  that per capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent ch
 anges in the temperature above or below its historical norm\, but we do no
 t obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitatio
 n. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in aver
 age global temperature by 0.04 degrees centigrade per year\, in the absenc
 e of mitigation policies\, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 
 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand\, abiding by the Paris Agreement\, th
 ereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01 degrees centigrade per ann
 um\, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary
  significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature incre
 ases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary 
 evidence using data on a sample of 48 US states between 1963 and 2016\, an
 d show that climate change has a long lasting adverse impact on real outpu
 t in various states and economic sectors\, and on labour productivity and 
 employment.
LOCATION:W4.05\, Cambridge Judge Business School
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