BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:To fly or not to fly? Improving volcanic ash forecasts for aviatio
 n - Dr. Natalie Harvey\, University of Reading
DTSTART:20200302T140000Z
DTEND:20200302T150000Z
UID:TALK133891@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:86962
DESCRIPTION: In the event of a volcanic eruption airlines need to make fas
 t decisions about which routes are safe to operate and to ensure airborne 
 aircraft land safely.  Currently these high-impact decisions are based on 
 qualitative forecasts produced without any indication of uncertainty. Two 
 of the largest sources of uncertainty in forecasting ash cloud location an
 d concentration are the emissions of ash from the volcano and the meteorol
 ogical situation. The work presented in this talk extends the UK Met Offic
 e Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling (InTEM) system to use an ense
 mble of meteorological conditions to investigate the dependence of emissio
 n estimates on wind field and wet deposition uncertainty. In the case of t
 he 2011 Grimsvotn eruption\, preliminary work shows that the impact of the
  variability of the ensemble wind fields is greater than that of the varia
 bility in the wet deposition. The next steps in this research are to quant
 ify the improvement in the forecasts of ash location due to this ensemble 
 approach and to develop an operational methodology that can be applied in 
 a real-time emergency response situation.  
LOCATION:Pfizer Lecture Theatre\, Department of Chemistry
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR