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SUMMARY:Modelling Large Scale Epidemiological Modelling of Infectious Tree
  Disease - John Holden\, Leeds
DTSTART:20191115T160000Z
DTEND:20191115T170000Z
UID:TALK134071@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:Modelling epidemics in tree populations can be addressed on a 
 variety of scales and resolutions. Individual tree-to-tree interactions ar
 e responsible for all emergent epidemics through countries and continents\
 , however\, modelling all interactions over the whole population is presen
 tly unfeasible. To address this\, we develop a sub-grid modelling framewor
 k combining two different models at different scales. The hybrid model use
 s a smaller scale Monte Carlo sub-grid model at resolution 5 m^2 that info
 rms a reactive-diffusive (RD) PDE model at resolution 1 km^2. The Monte Ca
 rlo sub-grid model is based on compartmentalised SIR with non-local disper
 sion and is shown to demonstrate travelling wave-like behaviour when ensem
 ble-averaged. The RD PDE system chosen is the F-K-P-P (or Fisher Kolmogoro
 v) model\, the simplest model that demonstrates the propagation of travell
 ing waves and logistic growth of the pathogen. From simple epidemiological
  input parameters and a (modelled) abundance dataset\, the travelling wave
 -speeds of the sub-grid are predetermined and mapped to diffusion coeffici
 ents that inform the FKPP equation. The FKPP equation is then numerically 
 simulated with a finite-difference method to approximate a pathogen spread
 ing through UK tree population. This framework attempts to aid efforts in 
 developing flexible\, generalisable\, large-scale epidemic models based on
  small scale epidemiological principles.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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