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SUMMARY:Communicating Complex Statistical Evidence - Various
DTSTART:20090108T090000Z
DTEND:20090108T190000Z
UID:TALK13516@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Arciris Garay Arevalo
DESCRIPTION:To be held January 8-9th\, 2009.\n\n*THEME*\n\nComplex statist
 ical models and reasoning can play a major role in informing both policy a
 nd individual decisions\, but it is not necessarily straightforward to com
 municate what may be rather subtle statistical issues. This conference wil
 l bring together people interested in techniques to maximize the credibili
 ty and impact of statistical science in a range of important contexts\, in
 cluding health policy\, climate change projections and impact\, crime and 
 the law\, and epidemic control.\n\n<h2>PROGRAMME</h2> \n\nThere will be a 
 single strand with no parallel sessions.   Contributed posters on a topic 
 relevant to the overall meeting theme are invited.\n\n\n<h3>DAY 1\, JANUAR
 Y 8TH\, 2009</h3>\n\n10:30-11:30&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     REGISTRAT
 ION & COFFEE\n\n11:30-12:15&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     TBD\n\n12:15-1
 3:00&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     Christl Donnelly\, Imperial College L
 ondon\, <em>Using statistics and modelling to understand the "what if"s of
  &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;
 &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;infectious disease</em>\n\n\n13:00-14:0
 0&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     LUNCH  \n\n14:00-14:45&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbs
 p\;&nbsp\;     Stephen Fienberg\, Carnegie-Mellon\, <em>Assessing Informat
 ion  Based Counter-Terrorism Programs:A Statistical &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&
 nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp
 \;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&n
 bsp\;&nbsp\;Perspective</em> \n\n14:45-15:30&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;  
    Dr. Ian Evett\, The Forensic Science Service\, <em>It's not rocket scie
 nce: logical inference and the judiciary\n</em>\n\n16:00-16.45&nbsp\;&nbsp
 \;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    Lawrence Sherman\, Cambridge Institute of Criminology 
  <em>Is it Ethical for Statisticians to Testify About 'Practical &nbsp\;&n
 bsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\
 ;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;Significance'? </em>\n\n16.45-17:15&nbsp\;&nbsp\;
 &nbsp\;&nbsp\;     Panel Discussion led by Philip Dawid\n\n17.15-18:30&nbs
 p\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     Poster Session & Reception\n\n19:00-21:30&nbs
 p\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     DINNER WITH AFTER-DINNER SPEECH BY (TBD)\n\n\
 n<h3>DAY 2: JANUARY 9TH\, 2009</h3>\n\n\n09:00-09:45&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&
 nbsp\;    Simon Thompson\, MRC Biostatistics Unit\, <em>Long-term health e
 conomic models: assumptions and uncertainty  </em>\n\n09:45-10:30&nbsp\;&n
 bsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;     David Spiegelhalter\, Statistical Laboratory and M
 RC BioStatistics Unit\, <em>Communicating analyses of the &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&n
 bsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\
 ;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;performance of healthcare organisations </em>\n\n10:30-1
 1:00&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    COFFEE BREAK \n\n11:00-11.45&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    Chris Gilligan\, Plant Sciences\, University of Camb
 ridge <em>Inference for decision making to control botanical &nbsp\;&nbsp\
 ;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;
 &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;epidemics</em>\n\n11:45-12:30&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;    Andrew Coburn\, Risk Management Solutions\, <em>Catastrophe Risk M
 odelling - Decisions and Uncertainty</em>\n \n12:30-13:30&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;    LUNCH \n\n13.30-14:15&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    Chris 
 Hope\, Judge Business School\,Cambridge\, <em>Probabilistic modelling for 
 climate change policy </em>\n\n14.15-15.00&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    
 David Sexton\, Met Office Hadley Centre\, <em>Probabilistic projections of
  UK 21st century UK climate change: &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nb
 sp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;
 &nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;chal
 lenges involved with production and communication </em>\n\n15:00-15:30&nbs
 p\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;    TEA BREAK \n\n15:30-16:15&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;
 &nbsp\;    David MacKay\, Physics\, University of Cambridge\, <em>Communic
 ating the Truth About Energy </em>\n\n16:15-16:45&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbsp\;&nbs
 p\;    PANEL DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION\n\n<h2>WEBSITE</h2>\n\nhttp://ccsecon
 f.org/\n\n<h2>REGISTRATION</h2>\n\nFormal registration is available online
 : http://ccseconf.org/node/3 \n\nOnly payments by cheque will be accepted\
 , due by 15 December 2008. Institutions requiring an invoice should notify
  Arciris Garay Arevalo.\n\n<h2>COST</h2>\n\n_Regular_:\nAttendance\, lunch
 es and conference dinner - 60 pounds\n\nDay attendance (includes lunch) - 
 20 pounds per day\n\nDinner - 25 pounds\n\n_Students and concessions_:\n\n
 Attendance - free\, but registration required\n\nDinner - 25 pounds\n\n*CO
 NFERENCE CHAIRS*\n\nPhilip Dawid and David Spiegelhalter\n
LOCATION:Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Meeting Room 2
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