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SUMMARY:Global Methane\, Project MOYA\, and the UK’s Net Zero target - P
 rof. Euan Nisbet\, Professor of Earth Sciences\, Royal Holloway\, Universi
 ty of London
DTSTART:20200116T131000Z
DTEND:20200116T140000Z
UID:TALK136807@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:David Gershlick
DESCRIPTION:The amount of methane in the air is growing rapidly\, and this
  growth is among the greatest challenges to the success of the UN Paris Ag
 reement. After rising for over two centuries\, very sharply in the 1980s\,
  methane appeared to have equilibrated in the 1999-2006 period. But in 200
 7 growth resumed\, accelerating in 2014 onwards. Over the 19th and 20th ce
 nturies\, atmospheric methane had been becoming richer in 13C\, indicating
  fossil fuel emissions were driving growth. But simultaneously with resump
 tion of growth in 2007\, the trend of the past two centuries has been reve
 rsed\, with methane now growing richer in 12C.  \nMuch of the growth in re
 cent years has been in the tropics and warm temperate regions. In 2014\, g
 rowth was global. Potential drivers of growth include warming tropical wet
 lands and more cattle\, as well as a complex array of anthropogenic inputs
  including fires and fossil fuel emissions. It remains uncertain if the ox
 idative capacity of the atmosphere is declining. Weaker sinks would also s
 hift the isotopic ratio to lighter values.. \nThe UK’s NERC MOYA Global 
 Methane Budget consortium (2016-2020) studies the changing methane burden\
 , with time series measurement of methane and its isotopes at remote sites
 \, field campaigns in the Arctic\, Europe\, and tropics\, and through mode
 lling studies. In particular\, recent aircraft campaigns in tropical Afric
 a and South America have measured large emissions from wetlands and fires.
 \nThe major anthropogenic sources are fossil fuel emissions\, agriculture\
 , fires and waste. Cutting emissions is feasible\, especially from the gas
  and coal industries and also from tropical fires and waste sources. In ma
 ny cases reduction measures may have low costs. In particular there is a n
 eed for tropical nations to participate\, for example by covering landfill
 s. If methane’s growth is not halted and reversed\, the climate impact w
 ill severely challenge hopes of containing global warming.\n\n_Nisbet et a
 l. (2020) Methane mitigation: methods to reduce emissions\, on the path to
  the Paris Agreement. Reviews of Geophysics in press Jan._\n\n_Nisbet et a
 l. (2019). Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the 4 years 2014–20
 17: Implications for the Paris Agreement. Global Biogeochemical Cycles\, 3
 3\, 318-342._\n
LOCATION:The Richard King Room\, Darwin College
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