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SUMMARY:Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of S
 ocial Insurance in Prussia - Timothy W. Guinnane (Yale University)
DTSTART:20200311T131500Z
DTEND:20200311T143000Z
UID:TALK137452@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:31344
DESCRIPTION:Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance 
 will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if childr
 en are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disabili
 ty or old age\, then state programs that provide insurance against these e
 vents should induce couples to substitute away from children in the alloca
 tion of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insura
 nce in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance syste
 m provided health insurance\, workplace-accident insurance\, and old age p
 ensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals b
 ecause the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compu
 lsory for covered classes of workers\, and because fertility in Germany in
  this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia\,
  we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage a
 nd marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main 
 social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 6\, Faculty of History
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