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SUMMARY: Multi-Scale Superinfection Models in Evolutionary Epidemiology - 
 Helena Stage\, Manchester
DTSTART:20200228T160000Z
DTEND:20200228T170000Z
UID:TALK138319@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:The study of evolutionary epidemiology is vital to understand 
 and control the spread of anti-microbial resistance\, but is inherently ch
 allenging because pathogen evolution is driven by forces acting at multipl
 e scales: for example\, HIV needs to escape the immune system within a hos
 t\, but also needs to maintain the ability to be transmitted efficiently b
 etween hosts. Time-since-infection models are much more flexible than ODEs
  if we want to allow for realistic enough aspects of both within- and betw
 een-host scales\, but capturing the feedback loops between such scales is 
 a formidable challenge.\n\nWe will discuss the main technical challenges i
 n developing a general theory for time-since-infection models that allow f
 or superinfection (e.g. multi-strain systems with partial cross-immunity)\
 , starting from the problem of characterising the system’s steady states
 . We will distinguish between the cases when superinfection of the host fa
 cilitates the coexistence of two (or more) infections that interact synerg
 istically by fuelling each other’s spread (syndemic)\, and when these in
 fections hinder each other. We show how in the former case multiple stable
  steady states are possible\, while in the latter case the stable steady s
 tate is unique but possibly harder to compute. We discuss the consequent i
 mplications for public health control measures.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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