BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Modeling zoonotic emergence: Nipah virus\, epidemic enhancement\, 
 and general trends - Dr Juliet Pulliam\, Fogarty International Center\, NI
 H Bethesda (USA)
DTSTART:20081106T130000Z
DTEND:20081106T140000Z
UID:TALK15063@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Olivier Restif
DESCRIPTION:Viral transmission between host species can harm public health
 \, conservation efforts\, and the global economy. In 1998-1999 a novel par
 amyxovirus\, now known as Nipah virus\, emerged in peninsular Malaysia and
  Singapore\, killing 105 people and devastating the commercial pig farming
  industry. I will describe a multinational\, collaborative investigation o
 f the factors that led to this widespread epidemic of Nipah virus encephal
 itis\, particularly focusing on my work on the dynamics of emergence. I wi
 ll then show how the results from this case study can be generalized to de
 scribe a phenomenon I call “epidemic enhancement\,” whereby repeated v
 iral introduction into a novel host population can produce longer and larg
 er epidemics than observed upon initial introduction. I will use simple dy
 namical models to show that this is a realistic scenario within the parame
 ter ranges of many common infectious diseases. Finally\, I will give a bro
 ad overview of how models have been used to understand zoonotic processes 
 and discuss important gaps in our current understanding\, with implication
 s for where to focus future efforts.
LOCATION:Meeting room 5\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR