BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness? - Andrew
Dobson (Princeton University\; Santa Fe Institute)
DTSTART:20200910T140000Z
DTEND:20200910T144500Z
UID:TALK150862@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Coivd-19&rsquo\;s arrival in the human population
was inevi
table. There is a huge
diversity of viral pathogens circulating in bats
and other small mammals. Three groups of people are exposed to them
th
rough their livelihoods: traders in the wildlife trade\, the miners and
loggers destroying tropical forests and those working in intensive
agr
iculture. The initial dynamics of
novel virus in these three groups of
people and their families determine
whether novel viruses will spread i
nto urban areas and from there to the rest
of the world.
This ta
lk will fall into three sections:
(1) Initially I&rsquo\;ll discuss way
s to estimate the diversity of viruses with
zoonotic potential and how
this determines the risk they will spread from the
initial crossover ho
sts into the rest of the human population. (2) I&rsquo\;ll then briefly di
scuss some earlier
models for how forest destruction changes the risk o
f transmission of viruses
from forest species to those converting the f
orest or those living in the newly
converted agricultural matrix. (3) I
n
the final section\, I&rsquo\;ll develop some economic approaches that
compare the cost
of modifying the activities that increase risk of vir
al emergence with the
current estimated cost of the Covid19 pandemic.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR