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SUMMARY:Fotocasa analysis: Betting on a quick recovery in V - Speaker to b
 e confirmed
DTSTART:20200906T100000Z
DTEND:20200906T110000Z
UID:TALK151036@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:DELETED
DESCRIPTION: \nThe health emergency caused by the coronavirus has generate
 d a forced stoppage of activity in all economic sectors. In some\, the bre
 ak is complete\, in others\, such as real estate\, it continues to operate
 \, but activity has been severely affected. Although these are difficult t
 imes to make predictions\, the big question is inevitable. It is the inten
 tion of this article to be able to shed light on it. \nCapital Smart City 
 self-contained with all of the amenities expected in a purpose-built city\
 , which includes international schools\, medical facilities\, community ce
 nter and entertainment venues at\nCapital Smart City Islamabad and "Skymar
 keting":https://skymarketing.com.pk/.\n\nThe most common questions in conv
 ersations (by phone\, of course) between professionals in the sector are: 
 When can you return to the activity? Can a general return be relied on or 
 will it be staggered? And\, above all: Who will buy a home after this? The
 se questions\, particularly the last one\, already set a stage\, which\, p
 erhaps\, is not as negative as some imagine. Let's look at the following g
 raph: \n \nThis Bloomberg chart corresponds to the evolution of China's in
 dustrial production (manufacturing activity\, export orders and employment
 ). It is especially interesting because\, beyond the reliability of data t
 hat is still preliminary and must be taken with caution\, it draws the per
 fect "V" that we all want to be reproduced in the Spanish economy when the
  health threat subsides. According to these data\, there has been an inten
 se slowdown in China and a rapid return of activity\, although not even to
  previous levels. \nChina is far\, but still further is the following exam
 ple: 1918\, the year of the so-called Spanish flu. According to El País \
 , three researchers (from the US Federal Reserve\, the New York Federal Re
 serve and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) have analyzed the eco
 nomic effects of the flu epidemic of a century ago on American cities and 
 their The conclusion points in the same direction: those places where acti
 on was taken sooner and more forcefully (in terms of social distancing) ag
 ainst the epidemic "grew faster when the pandemic passed." \nOne last exam
 ple: that of the 2003 SARS and its effect on the GDP of Hong Kong\, one of
  the most affected places. The following graph\, published by Zillow in a 
 comprehensive analysis of the effect of epidemics on the economy in genera
 l and the property market in particular\, perfectly reflects the impact of
  the epidemic \, that gap between February and June 2003\, and the subsequ
 ent recovery until returning\, in the month of October\, to its previous t
 rajectory. And again we find the drawing of a V. \n \nWhat many of these p
 atterns have in common (unlike the Spanish financial crisis of 2008) is th
 at their financial systems made an effort to quickly maintain its liquidit
 y. In this way\, the temporary negative economic effects were offset by fa
 cilitating short-term recovery.\nThe situation in Spain\nSpain is not Chin
 a\, nor Hong Kong of 2003 nor\, at all\, the United States of a century ag
 o. None of these antecedents allows us to predict the future. Because the 
 current Covid-19 pandemic has no possible equivalency with any of the prev
 ious ones: globalization has brought much more connected societies (hence 
 the rapid spread of the virus around the world) and much more interdepende
 nt economies . \nBut this also means that China\, an exporting country by 
 definition\, needs demand from other countries affected by the disease in 
 order for its economy to grow again. And Spain\, with a large share of the
  tourism sector\, needs to have flights\, that people can gather on the be
 aches and in restaurants and that foreign visitors can and want to spend t
 heir holidays here. Any country has its peculiarities and the recovery of 
 its economy will also depend\, to a greater or lesser extent\, on how thin
 gs are going for the rest of the countries with which it usually operates.
 \nIn the case of Spain\, we have essentially three economic aspects to con
 sider: the Government's financial plans\, the European aid package and the
  evolution of the countries with which we usually operate. Of the first tw
 o\, we "qnnit":https://qnnit.com/ have the certainty that these plans are 
 underway\, and from the third aspect\, we are also seeing trends in this l
 ine of our western neighbors. All these are already realities of today tha
 t lead us to propose in Spain a recovery in "V"\, as we are seeing in othe
 r cases.\nAn intense impact but a rapid recovery would return us to a scen
 ario in which house prices\, especially in large cities\, would continue t
 o stabilize\; in which the imbalances between supply and demand would cont
 inue to accentuate and in whose rental market tensions with the public adm
 inistrations would continue showing corrective measures. That is\, where w
 e were just two months ago.\nA growth in "V" would return the graphs to th
 e pre-pandemic trend\, returning to that scenario full of everyday problem
 s\, the kind that\, now that we don't have them\, we miss so much.\n\n
LOCATION:Venue to be confirmed
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