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SUMMARY:The utility of simple climate models - Dr. Chris Smith\, Universit
 y of Leeds
DTSTART:20201005T100000Z
DTEND:20201005T110000Z
UID:TALK151915@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:76948
DESCRIPTION:Complex Earth system models that are used to make global clima
 te projections are computationally expensive to run\, and simpler models h
 ave become an important tool in assessing climate responses to a wide rang
 e of emissions pathways. Two distinct advantages of simple models\, arisin
 g from their low resource demands\, are (1) large probabilistic ensembles 
 can be run\, and (2) hundreds of future emissions pathways can be modelled
 \, as is done in the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (
 SR1.5) and Working Group 3 assessments on climate change mitigation. We ha
 ve developed a simple open-source Earth system model emulator (FaIR) which
  projects temperature responses as a function of input emissions and effec
 tive radiative forcing. This talk explains how simple climate models can b
 e used for a range of applications\, such as: calculation of the remaining
  carbon budget to 1.5°C\; constraining the historical aerosol forcing\; a
 nd determining committed warming from historical emissions. Simple models 
 find utility in being coupled to integrated assessment models of the popul
 ation and economy\, and are now being extended to report climate impacts a
 nd other metrics of interest beyond global mean temperature changes\, allo
 wing for the full emissions to climate impacts process chain to be determi
 ned.
LOCATION:Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86969774219?pwd=Unp0SVZQdVBSQ3ZvT
 1NsVTFUOGViUT09
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