BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Jet Regimes and the Predictability of Euro-Atlantic Weather - Kris
 tian Strommen\, Department of Physics\, University of Oxford
DTSTART:20201109T130000Z
DTEND:20201109T140000Z
UID:TALK152278@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Jerome Neufeld
DESCRIPTION:In recent years\, numerical weather prediction models have beg
 un to show notable levels of skill at predicting the winter North Atlantic
  Oscillation (NAO) when initialised one month ahead. Because the NAO gives
  a good first-order approximation of European winter weather\, this has ga
 rnered a lot of interest. At the same time\, model predictions exhibit unu
 sually low signal-to-noise ratios\, in what has been dubbed a `signal-to-n
 oise paradox'. We present a new framework for understanding this behaviour
  in terms of the regime dynamics of the trimodal\, North Atlantic eddy-dri
 ven jet. It is shown that systematically weak persistence in models may be
  a key factor in producing the signal-to-noise paradox\, and that this is 
 likely in part due to weak transient eddy forcing in models. Sources of pr
 edictability in this regime system are also discussed.
LOCATION:Zoom webinar - link to follow
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR