BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:An Optimal Control Approach to Covid-19 - Prof. Jan Maciejowski\, 
 University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20201022T130000Z
DTEND:20201022T140000Z
UID:TALK153280@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Thiago Burghi
DESCRIPTION:Most countries have controlled the spread of the Covid-19 pand
 emic by reducing social interaction. This has drastically reduced their ec
 onomic activity\, and a legitimate question is "Is the cure worse than the
  disease?" In this presentation we show a methodology for answering this a
 nd related questions\, and for assessing the appropriate policy. The probl
 em is posed as a classical optimal control problem and solved numerically 
 under various assumptions. We assume that no vaccine is available for one 
 year\, so that the control input is the severity of social regulation. The
  costs are a combination of economic damage and lives lost. Parameters are
  chosen to be plausible for the British case. The presentation will demons
 trate how control theorists can contribute to the pandemic problem current
 ly facing the whole world. It will introduce the standard model used in ep
 idemiology\, and discuss some variations. It will then show how the proble
 m can be posed as an optimal control problem\, and how it can be solved. A
  trade-off between economic damage and the number of deaths is obtained\, 
 and a surprising discontinuity is demonstrated. We consider the effects of
  introducing "test and trace" capability\, and the effect of delay in intr
 oducing social restrictions. We also discuss how this approach should be m
 odified for real-time policy making\, and note some other work on Covid-19
  by other Control researchers.\n\nThis talk is based on the recently-publi
 shed paper "A cost-benefit analysis of the Covid-19 disease" by Robert Row
 thorn and Jan Maciejowski\, published in the Oxford Review of Economic Pol
 icy\, special issue on the Covid-19 pandemic.\nhttps://doi.org/10.1093/oxr
 ep/graa030\n\nPlease join this talk using the following Zoom link: https:/
 /zoom.us/j/97430090424
LOCATION:Online (Zoom)
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR