BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Risk factors for persistence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herd
 s. - Kat Karolemeas
DTSTART:20081127T163000Z
DTEND:20081127T173000Z
UID:TALK15367@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Olivier Restif
DESCRIPTION:The incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in GB has
  increased by 18% on average per year since the mid-1980s and bTB carries 
 a high economic impact in GB with approximately £80 million being spent i
 n 2006-7 on disease control. Many studies have been undertaken to try to i
 dentify risk factors for bTB herd breakdowns\, though few have looked at r
 isk factors for persistence of herd breakdowns. These herds are of particu
 lar interest since by failing to clear infection (‘prolonged’ breakdow
 ns)\, or by having persistence of undetected infection or an increased lik
 elihood of re-infection (‘recurrent’ breakdowns)\, they may act as a f
 ocus of infection. \n\nData available from a detailed herd-level case-cont
 rol study have been analysed to assess the impact of herd-level management
  characteristics on the incidence of ‘prolonged’ bTB breakdowns. A nov
 el approach has been taken re-classifying the original breakdown herds int
 o ‘prolonged’ and ‘non-prolonged’ breakdowns\, analysed by a logis
 tic regression model in order to quantify the effect of different risk fac
 tors. The preliminary model has shown excellent discriminatory power when 
 tested on the dataset used to form the model and is currently being tested
  on independent datasets to assess its predictive ability. Identification 
 of risk factors together with this ability to predict which herds are more
  likely to suffer a prolonged breakdown in the future could be a valuable 
 tool for Defra\, particularly in terms of altering the management of these
  herds. It is hoped that the findings from this work will further the unde
 rstanding of persistence of bTB that occurs in some herds in GB and contri
 bute to improving current control policies.\n\n
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR