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SUMMARY:Impact of Covid19 on Climate - James Weber\, Sanna Markkanen\, Pau
 l Young
DTSTART:20201124T133000Z
DTEND:20201124T150000Z
UID:TALK154210@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Ming
DESCRIPTION:1:30 to 2:00 pm James Weber: Minimal climate impacts from shor
 t lived climate forces following emission reductions related to the COVID
 ‐19 pandemic\n\n2:00 to 2:30 pm Sanna Markkanen: Maximising the benefits
 : Economic\, employment and emissions impacts of green recovery stimulus i
 n Europe\n\n2:30 to 3:00 pm Paul Young: Lockdown and future pathways to su
 stainability: Learning and doing from broad perspectives\n\nAbstracts\n\nJ
 ames Weber\nTitle: Minimal climate impacts from short lived climate forces
  following emission reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic\n\nWe pr
 esent an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiativ
 e forcing of short‐lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in an
 thropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in resp
 onse to the COVID‐19 pandemic\, using the global composition‐climate m
 odel United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model (UKCA). Emission changes 
 reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens\, increasing methan
 e lifetime. Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidizing capacity lead to a decreas
 e in sulfate aerosol and increase in aerosol size\, with accompanying redu
 ctions to cloud droplet concentration. However\, large reductions in black
  carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo. Overall\, the changes in ozone 
 and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol‐cloud interactions which 
 were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future invest
 igation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78mWm−2. Upon cessatio
 n of emission reductions\, the short‐lived climate forcers rapidly retur
 n to pre‐COVID levels\; meaning\, these changes are unlikely to have las
 ting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre‐intervention le
 vels.\n\n---------------------------\n\nSanna Markkanen\nTitle: Maximising
  the benefits: Economic\, employment and emissions impacts of green recove
 ry stimulus in Europe\n\nAbstracts: This report contributes to the growing
  evidence base of what green recovery policies can achieve in Europe by dr
 awing on Cambridge Econometrics’ E3ME modelling results carried out for 
 the We Mean Business Coalition publication\, Assessment of Green Recovery 
 Plans after COVID-19. The CLG Europe technical report presents an overall 
 view of the EU\, the UK and specific EU economies including Poland\, Germa
 ny and Spain.\n\nThe modelling results show the Green Recovery plan as con
 sistently more favourable than more traditional option of cutting VAT by 5
  percent in terms of boosting GDP and employment\, as well as contributing
  to additional reduction in CO2 emissions. At the EU level\, the effect of
  increases over time with significantly better outcomes shown in 2030 if G
 reen Recovery packages are pursued. The modelling also illustrates how cou
 ntries can achieve maximum impact at a national level\, taking into consid
 eration the contextual factors that may restrict the benefits from specifi
 c green recovery measures. However\, it is also clear from the results tha
 t in some countries there will be a need for longer-term support beyond th
 e two-year period that most countries have announced economic stimulus pac
 kages for and as modelled in the packages in this report.\n\nThe report is
  accessible online from https://www.corporateleadersgroup.com/reports-evid
 ence-and-insights/maximising-the-benefits\n\n---------------------------\n
 \nPaul Young\nTitle: Lockdown and future pathways to sustainability: Learn
 ing and doing from broad perspectives\n\nCOVID19 has wrought massive disru
 ption to lives and livelihoods. Through changing our habits and activities
 \, this disruption has left a signature on important atmospheric processes
 \, including air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. From an atmospher
 ic science point of view\, it has created a "natural experiment"\, where w
 e can test our understanding of atmospheric chemistry and physics from an 
 abundance of measurements and advanced analyses. I shall review some of th
 is work in terms of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions\, including
  demonstrating how new data science techniques are becoming an indispensab
 le tool for this research. There have also been broader discussions as to 
 whether the lockdown is a suitable model for a sustainable future\, or how
  we might use this as an opportunity to Build Back Better. Environmental s
 cience certainly has important contributions to this discussion\, but I wi
 ll argue that it must recognize its limitations and engage in a broader co
 alition of expertise and participants if it is to play a useful\, legitima
 te and just role.
LOCATION:Zoom
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