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SUMMARY:Virtual Seminar: 'PROGRESS in sample size calculations for clinica
 l prediction model research' - Professor Richard Riley\, Centre for Progno
 sis Research\, School of Medicine\, Keele University
DTSTART:20201208T140000Z
DTEND:20201208T150000Z
UID:TALK154450@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:There is a growing demand to personalise treatment and healthc
 are for individuals based on their prognosis and/or predicted response to 
 treatment. For this reason\, prognosis and prediction research has never b
 een more important. Sadly\, empirical evidence has shown that prognosis an
 d prediction studies are often poorly designed\, badly analysed\, and sele
 ctively reported. The Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) framework was
  established to help address such shortcomings. In this talk\, I will desc
 ribe the PROGRESS framework\, and highlight latest methodology guidance fo
 r calculating the sample size required for developing and validating clini
 cal prediction models. \n\nIn terms of sample size for model development\,
  current “rules of thumb” are based on having at least 10 events per p
 redictor variable\, but I will describe a more scientific approach based o
 n minimising expected overfitting and ensuring precise parameter estimatio
 n. In terms of sample size for model validation\, I will introduce a new a
 pproach that targets precise estimation of key model performance measures.
  Real examples are used to illustrate the concepts. The talk is intended f
 or a wide audience.\n
LOCATION:Virtual Seminar 
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