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SUMMARY:Modelling the risks of measles outbreaks near elimination - Alexis
  Robert\, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
DTSTART:20210219T150000Z
DTEND:20210219T160000Z
UID:TALK154933@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Theodora Anderson
DESCRIPTION:Although the global burden of measles has been substantially r
 educed after the introduction of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine\,
  significant outbreaks continue to affect populations around the world. So
 cial and spatial heterogeneity in incidence or vaccine coverage lead to un
 der-immunised areas\, whereby importation of cases can cause large transmi
 ssion clusters and long-lasting outbreaks. This heterogeneity causes two m
 ajor challenges: i) Identifying what regions are most vulnerable to outbre
 aks\, and ii) Evaluating the overall risks of measles transmission in a co
 untry.\n\nInference tools can help spot regions at risk from routinely col
 lected surveillance data. We developed the R package _o2geosocial_\, which
  reconstructs transmission clusters from the onset date\, location\, age a
 nd genotype of cases. The cluster size distribution then highlights areas 
 where importations were most likely to lead to further transmissions. We a
 pplied o2geosocial to reconstruct transmission history using local simulat
 ed data\, and the national database of measles cases reported in the Unite
 d States between 2001 and 2016.\n\nA country becomes eligible for measles 
 elimination status after transmission is interrupted for three years\, alo
 ng with high national vaccine coverage. Nevertheless\, recent major outbre
 aks in countries that had recently reached the elimination status (eg Unit
 ed Kingdom\, Brazil\, Greece) illustrate that the indicators of eliminatio
 n may need reframing. We implemented a time-series frequentist model\, usi
 ng the R package _surveillance_\, to study the impact of recent local leve
 ls of incidence and vaccine uptake on the risks of importation\, cross-reg
 ional transmission and local transmissions. We applied this model using th
 e daily number of cases reported in France between 2009 and 2017.\n
LOCATION:Venue to be confirmed
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