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SUMMARY:How will climate change affect volcanic plume rise and aerosol cyc
 le? - Thomas Aubry (University of Cambridge)
DTSTART:20210311T113000Z
DTEND:20210311T123000Z
UID:TALK156853@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Catherine Pearson
DESCRIPTION:Explosive volcanic eruptions are a major driver of climate var
 iability\, but whether climate change in turn affects volcanic sulfate aer
 osols and their radiative forcing remains unexplored. Here I combine an er
 uptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the aerosol
  optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical erup
 tions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scena
 rio compared to today\, a consequence of the tropopause height rise. In co
 ntrast\, the radiative forcing from infrequent large-magnitude tropical er
 uptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30% primarily beca
 use of a decrease by 10% of the aerosol size driven by the acceleration of
  the Brewer-Dobson circulation and an increase in eruptive column height. 
 This increased forcing amplifies stratospheric warming\, tropospheric cool
 ing and surface cooling by 52%\, 55% and 15%. Changes in eruptive column d
 ynamics and the injection height of sulfur gases prove key to accurately p
 redict the climate response to future eruptions.\nIn a second part\, I wil
 l discuss the extent to which eruptive column models can capture the impac
 t of atmospheric conditions on volcanic plume rise\, and in particular con
 straints from both laboratory experiments and natural eruptions. I will br
 iefly introduce the upcoming Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Paramete
 r Archive (IVESPA\, https://thm.iavceivolcano.org/example-2/esp-working-gr
 oup.html)\, which is a new community database primarly motivated by the ev
 aluation of eruptive column models.
LOCATION:Open Plan Area\, BP Institute\, Madingley Rise CB3 0EZ
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