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SUMMARY:Refined eruptive history of Mount Pelée volcano and implications 
 for tephra fallout hazard in Martinique - Dr Audrey Michaud-Dubuy\, Instit
 ut de Physique du Globe de Paris
DTSTART:20210304T130000Z
DTEND:20210304T140000Z
UID:TALK157270@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Céline Marie Vidal
DESCRIPTION:Mount Pelée volcano (Martinique) is one of the most active vo
 lcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with at least fifteen magmatic events i
 n the last 5\,000 years\, including the deadliest eruption of the twentiet
 h century in 1902. Our knowledge of the eruptions older than 5 ka is howev
 er very limited\, thus reducing our capacity to predict the dynamics of fu
 ture eruptions at Mount Pelée.\n\nTwo new extensive field studies perform
 ed in 2017 and 2019 in Martinique combined with carbon-dating measurements
  allow us identifying six new eruptions in the past 24 ka cal BP\, includi
 ng four Plinian and two Pelean eruptions. We reconstruct the dynamical evo
 lution of the newly discovered Plinian eruptions of Bellefontaine (13.5 ka
  cal BP)\, Carbet (14 ka cal BP) and Etoile (21.5 ka cal BP) whose great i
 nterest stems from their unusual southward dispersal axis encompassing are
 as that are considered to be safe in current hazard maps. Using the 2-D as
 h dispersion HAZMAP model\, we identify peculiar atmospheric circulations 
 associated to a modification of the subtropical jet-stream path producing 
 northerly winds over Martinique and thus spreading ash towards the most po
 pulated areas of the island.\n\nThis integrated approach\, combining field
  studies and model predictions\, allows us to build new volcanic hazard ma
 ps for tephra fallout in Martinique. Our method is based on 16 eruptive sc
 enarios\, consistent with the data retrieved from our stratigraphical reco
 rds. Each scenario considers a different pair of deposit mass and mass dis
 charge rate\, and is given a probability of occurrence calculated from the
  complete eruptive history of the volcano. We use the ERA-5 database to co
 nsider the daily variability of winds. These new probability maps\, as wel
 l as the predicted range of damages that could be expected at key infrastr
 uctures in Martinique\, will be useful to revisit the emergency procedures
  as the volcanological observatory (OVSM) recently raised Mount Pelée vol
 cano on alert level 2.
LOCATION: Zoom webinar - link to follow
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