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SUMMARY:Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-1
 9 case fatality ratio among care home residents in England - Dr Chris Over
 ton\, University of Manchester
DTSTART:20210526T150000Z
DTEND:20210526T160000Z
UID:TALK160801@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elde
 rly and frail worldwide\, particularly in care homes. This is driven by th
 e difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community and the larg
 e population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households)
 . To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease\, case fatality ratios a
 re an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result 
 in death\, and is related to infection fatality ratio\, which quantifies t
 he proportion of infections that result in death. Whilst the IFR may be a 
 better indicator of the risk posed by infection\, from an operational pers
 pective the CFR is more informative\, since we only observe cases rather t
 han infections. Throughout the pandemic\, CFR amongst care home residents 
 in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR\, we apply both nov
 el and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes provided by Public
  Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these differen
 t methods\, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using thes
 e methods\, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both 
 daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of Engl
 and\, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CF
 R varies based on the type of care required\, dis-aggregating by whether c
 are homes include nursing staff.
LOCATION:Zoom
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