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SUMMARY:An agent-based model to simulate workplace transmission of SARS-Co
 V-2 - Dr Nicholas Warren\, Health and Safety Executive\, Science and Resea
 rch Centre
DTSTART:20210616T150000Z
DTEND:20210616T160000Z
UID:TALK161041@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:Understanding how workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is infl
 uenced by workplace environmental factors\, human behaviour and control st
 rategies is critical. We aimed to develop an agent-based mathematical mode
 l to simulate how SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks propagate within workplaces to inve
 stigate the efficacy of potential control and mitigation strategies.\nA st
 ochastic SIR model has been developed utilising enterprise-level contact n
 etworks. Initial development used a published pre-pandemic workplace conta
 ct network of French office workers.  Individual workers transition betwee
 n states in 24-hour steps where the risk of individual infection is depend
 ent upon contact duration and distance\, the infectivity of daily contacts
 \, and on environmental and control factors. Disease characteristics such 
 as the incubation period and daily infectiousness were based on published 
 estimates. Individual infection probabilities were based on the Wells-Rile
 y infection model with viral generation parameters selected to give SARs (
 Secondary Attack Rates) consistent with those observed in workplace outbre
 aks seen via UK Test and Trace. The relative efficacy of different control
 s (workplace social distancing\, face coverings\, room ventilation\, rapid
  antigen testing and case isolation) was investigated by running the model
  over different combinations of relevant variations in model parameters an
 d changes to the contact network.\nPreliminary results suggest that the ef
 fectiveness of control measures depends upon patterns of short and medium 
 proximity contacts and the relative contribution to transmission from drop
 let and finer aerosols. Workplace Covid security is likely to be best achi
 eved through a package of control and mitigation measures.\n
LOCATION:Zoom
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