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SUMMARY:Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the South
 ern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022 - François Mass
 onnet\, Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain)
DTSTART:20220504T130000Z
DTEND:20220504T140000Z
UID:TALK168371@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr. Shenjie Zhou
DESCRIPTION:The SIPN South project is an international\, coordinated initi
 ative endorsed by the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP)\, that aims at ident
 ifying the skill of current seasonal predictions of sea ice around Antarct
 ica. Here\, we review and analyze the results of five years of predictions
  of summer sea ice conducted by 20 groups since 2017\, having contributed 
 together more than 1000 forecasts. A wide range of approaches is considere
 d\, ranging from statistical data-driven to dynamical process-based models
 . We evaluate the ability of the forecasts to reproduce observed sea ice a
 rea at the circumpolar and regional levels and their skill relative to tri
 vial forecasts (climatology\, persistence). We find that a substantial spr
 ead exists already at day one in the dynamical forecasts\, pointing at pro
 blems with the initialization. We also find that the forecasts based on st
 atistical modeling perform generally better than forecasts based on dynami
 cal modeling. We review the potential of predicting sea ice a season ahead
  in the Southern Ocean and suggest directions for improvements.\n
LOCATION:https://ukri.zoom.us/j/94619857237\; BAS seminar room 1
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