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SUMMARY:The Three Ts of Virulence Evolution during Zoonotic Emergence - El
 isa  Visher  (University of California\, Berkeley)
DTSTART:20220315T113500Z
DTEND:20220315T120500Z
UID:TALK170174@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may pl
 ay in current and future pandemics\, but there is often also considerable 
 confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be\, in part
 \, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields\, but
  there is a large\, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on 
 the evolution of infectious disease. In this review\, we synthesize this e
 volutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understandi
 ng of the key principles. Specifically\, we discuss the selection acting o
 n zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and du
 ring emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection dur
 ing epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts
  framework: trade-offs\, transmission\, and time scales. Virulence and tra
 nsmission rate may trade-off\, but transmission rate is likely to be favou
 red by selection early in emergence\, particularly if maladapted zoonotic 
 pathogens have &lsquo\;no-cost&rsquo\; transmission rate improving mutatio
 ns available to them. Additionally\, the optimal virulence and transmissio
 n rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen
  evolution\, therefore\, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of t
 ransmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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