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SUMMARY:Connecting Atmospheric &amp\; Oceanic Boundary Layer Turbulence to
  Global Warming:  Regional Mixed Layer Depth as an Emergent Constraint - B
 aylor Fox-Kemper\, Brown University
DTSTART:20220214T130000Z
DTEND:20220214T140000Z
UID:TALK170330@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Jerome Neufeld
DESCRIPTION:The global ocean modulates the climate’s temperature respons
 e to forcing. Ocean turbulent mixing processes mediate this relationship\,
  and global climate models (GCMs) often struggle to simulate this mixing\,
  but most research has ignored ocean processes as an avenue for constraini
 ng predicted warming. Here we show that regional mixed layer depth (MLD) s
 trongly constrains climate sensitivity because of its relationship to ocea
 nic heat capacity\, heat uptake\, and the depth of the Atlantic Meridional
  Overturning Circulation. We fit a two-layer energy balance model (EBM) to
  each GCM in a 25-member CMIP6 ensemble\, and correlate the parameters of 
 the EBMs with average pre-forcing mixed layer depths in the northern (55N
 –75N)\, tropical (26S–26N)\, and southern oceans (65S–45S). Using th
 ese correlations and observations from the Argo float network\, we revise 
 the ensemble mean and narrow the 66% range of equilibrium climate sensitiv
 ity (ECS) for the particular CMIP6 model collection from 4.51 (3.13–5.71
 )C\, to 4.66 (3.88–5.43)C\, amounting to a 40% reduction in the span of 
 the uncertainty range. Such a reduction in uncertainty rivals the impact o
 f other critical processes\, e.g.\, clouds\, in their effect on overall su
 rface warming projections
LOCATION:MR5\, CMS
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