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SUMMARY:The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub: a multi-model effort towards a
 ddressing uncertainty during the pandemic in the United States  - Dr Rebec
 ca Borchering\, The Pennsylvania State University
DTSTART:20220223T160000Z
DTEND:20220223T170000Z
UID:TALK170648@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to present challenges for miti
 gation of public health burden. Intervention decisions often require multi
 ple months of projections\; accounting for uncertainties involved over suc
 h timescales is necessary to provide responsible and effective guidance. T
 he COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has been developed to meet the need for 
 longer-term projections of COVID-19 burden in the United States. Rounds of
  the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) have evaluated combinations of interventi
 on strategies involving different levels of vaccine administration and hes
 itancy\, nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) reduction\, and transmission
  intensity of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Repeated rounds and extensive 
 interaction with policymakers and public health professionals has facilita
 ted the development of scenarios that are of greatest policy interest for 
 United States COVID-19 mitigation efforts. The incorporation of multiple m
 odeling groups also allows for structured analysis and visualization of ke
 y areas of uncertainty\, such as the potential for immune escape and behav
 ioral feedback in response to surges in cases and hospitalizations. Here\,
  we will further motivate SMH and discuss aspects of its development. We w
 ill present projection results for state and national-level cases\, hospit
 alizations\, and deaths through our most recent rapid rounds addressing em
 ergence of the Omicron variant\, including how results vary across modelin
 g groups and states. We will also discuss challenges of scenario modeling 
 efforts for public health decision-making and highlight areas for improvem
 ent. 
LOCATION:Zoom
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