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SUMMARY:Multi-year drought storylines for Europe and North America from an
  iteratively perturbed global climate model - Claudia Gessner\, ETH Zurich
DTSTART:20220222T110000Z
DTEND:20220222T123000Z
UID:TALK170711@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Herbie Bradley
DESCRIPTION:Europe and North America have experienced intense and long-las
 ting droughts with large impacts on society and ecosystem. Therefore\, it 
 is important to understand how dry a worst-case drought would be and how l
 ong it would take to recover from it. Our study introduces a methodologica
 l framework to generate climate model-based drought storylines of differen
 t severities and for different locations. The so-called iterative ensemble
  resampling method repeatedly runs large ensembles and only keeps those en
 semble members\, which minimize local precipitation. In the first part\, w
 e demonstrated the feasibility of the framework by generating some of the 
 most extreme meteorological and soil moisture droughts possible over weste
 rn Europe and central North America\, respectively. The drought storylines
  are developed with the fully coupled global climate model CESM1. The seco
 nd part analyses the recovery time of the extreme soil moisture deficits. 
 Over the driest regions\, the soil moisture recovers over a period of a fe
 w months up to more than five years\, depending on the mean atmospheric ci
 rculation rather than on the strength of the soil moisture deficit. In gen
 eral\, the framework can be easily adjusted to simulate less extreme droug
 ht storylines\, to reconstruct historical events and to generate idealized
  experimental setups.
LOCATION:https://zoom.us/j/6708259482?pwd=Qk03U3hxZWNJZUZpT2pVZnFtU2RRUT09
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