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SUMMARY:Incidence Analysis of the Restoration and Hanoverian Excise: Asses
 sing Contemporary Claims for Back Shifting\, Forward Shifting and Substitu
 tion Effects - D'Maris Coffman\, Newnham College
DTSTART:20090217T170000Z
DTEND:20090217T180000Z
UID:TALK17078@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mette Jamasb
DESCRIPTION:Since Edwin Seligman (The Shifting and Incidence of Taxation\,
  1899)\, fiscal historians have known that eighteenth-century English econ
 omic writings contained a diversity of opinion about the probable economic
  incidence of indirect taxation\, particularly the excise on beer and ale.
  For contemporaries\, the stakes were high. The excise (an unpopular and c
 ontentious tax) accounted for about a quarter of the total public revenue 
 of Great Britain. According to Gregory King (1695)\, households spent more
  on beer and ale than any other single item\, and a significant portion of
  the agricultural produce of the kingdom was consumed in its production (M
 athias\, 1959 [1992]). For modern economic historians\, accurate measureme
 nt of the economic incidence of the excise would permit meaningful compari
 son of the relative fiscal capacities of the British and French states (Ma
 thias and O’Brien\, 1976\; 1978\; McCloskey\, 1978). More importantly\, 
 without accurate measurements of incidence\, it is impossible to assess th
 e effects of the tax on industrialization of the brewing industry and on t
 he organization of eighteenth-century British agriculture.\n \nThirty year
 s ago\, when the question was first floated\, economic historians lacked b
 oth the methodological tools and the necessary price and wage data to perf
 orm even rudimentary partial incidence analysis. Inspired by Mark Spoerer
 ’s successful resolution of the Laspeyres-Paradox (2008)\, this paper pe
 rforms a historical analysis of incidence and attempts to measure the effe
 cts of the tax on the organization of the brewing industry. My results sho
 w statistically significant ‘forward shifting’ at ordinary levels of t
 he duty. Limited ‘back shifting’ is evident only at extraordinary duty
  levels. Substitution effects do not appear significant. The author would 
 welcome suggestions for refinement of the models used to assess the effect
 s on the brewing industry.\n
LOCATION:Winstanley Lecture Hall\, Trinity College
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