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SUMMARY:A household-structured approach to modelling non-pharmaceutical in
 terventions - Dr Joe Hilton\, University of Warwick
DTSTART:20220302T160000Z
DTEND:20220302T170000Z
UID:TALK170969@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:The response to the COVID 19 pandemic has been characterised b
 y the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders 
 and physical distancing restrictions\, often on a dramatic scale and in ju
 risdictions where these interventions have never before been implemented. 
 These control measures carry the potential for highly disruptive social an
 d economic side-effects\, and projections of their impact provide a key pi
 ece of evidence in the case for justifying these policies. Here we present
  a mathematical model of COVID 19 dynamics which includes both age/risk st
 ructure and household structure\, specifically designed to simulate a rang
 e of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The presence of age structure in ou
 r model grants it the potential to capture both age-structured contact beh
 aviours and age-stratified physiological variations which affect susceptib
 ility to infection\, morbidity\, and mortality. By structuring our model p
 opulation on household lines we are also able to capture the impact of fam
 ily structure on infection\, and to create detailed models of intervention
 s which modify the behaviour of individuals on the between- and within-hou
 sehold level. Our model uses a Markovian “self-consistent equations” s
 tructure which offers an advantage in terms of mathematical tractability o
 ver network or agent-based approaches\, and which can be implemented compu
 tationally through high performance and parallel computing. To demonstrate
  the capabilities of our model we present the results of analyses covering
  several different aspects of the UK’s COVID 19 response\, including “
 support bubble” exemptions to lockdown orders\, out-of-household isolati
 on of detected cases\, and within-household controls on transmission throu
 gh ventilation and hygiene.
LOCATION:Zoom
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