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SUMMARY:Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in forecast 
 verification on S2S timescales - Ted Shepherd (University of Reading)
DTSTART:20220923T110000Z
DTEND:20220923T112000Z
UID:TALK179054@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:There is a longstanding disconnect between physical reasoning 
 and statistical practice in mainstream climate science. This disconnect ex
 tends to forecasting on subseasonal to seasonal timescales\, which general
 ly employs a frequentist definition of probability\, counting members of a
  forecast ensemble. Such an approach struggles in the face of systematic m
 odel error\, the inevitably sparse sampling in a finite ensemble\, and lim
 ited verification data. In this talk I reflect on this historical disconne
 ct and illustrate a few ways in which physical reasoning can be brought in
 to the statistical framing of the forecast verification problem\, through 
 Bayesian reasoning and causal networks.
LOCATION:No Room Required
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