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SUMMARY:The Limits to Growth 50 years later. The role of models in studyin
 g the future - Ugo Bardi Professor at the University of Florence 
DTSTART:20221121T163000Z
DTEND:20221121T180000Z
UID:TALK184247@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:110294
DESCRIPTION:50 years after the publication of the seminal report to the Cl
 ub of Rome “The Limits to Growth” (1972) it is possible to reassess th
 e role of models as tools to examine the future and\, within some limits\,
  predict it. It has been said that “all models are wrong\, but some are 
 useful.” It is true\, but what does it mean in practice\, especially fac
 ing an incredible proliferation of models in all fields of science? To und
 erstand this subject\, I am discussing some of the best known\, and most c
 ommon\, models\, starting from “world modeling” (the subject of the 
 “Limits to Growth” study\, to move to climate models\, ecosystem model
 s\, and other kind of model. The complexity of the subject is nothing less
  than bewildering\, but it is possible to discern some trends\, and produc
 e some recommendations. Often\, simpler models turn out to have a better r
 ecord as predicting tools than complex ones. The case of “The Limits to 
 Growth” is an illustration of this point: although it was a very simple 
 model compared to the current standards\, its basic scenario turned out to
  be able to describe the trajectory of the world system up to now.
LOCATION:Manatee Seminar Room (First Floor) - David Attenborough Building\
 , University of Cambridge Pembroke St\, Cambridge CB2 3QZ
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